Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict brings readers a war college course taught at a Las Vegas casino. To succeed in poker, it is not enough to simply anticipate the actions of other players and try to outsmart them. A successful player must also understand and appreciate the role of randomness. Additionally, players must confront the reality that all human beings are prone to errors in judgment, which cause them to make suboptimal choices under many circumstances. Taken together, these challenges make poker a fascinating and highly unpredictable game, much like the dynamics of international conflict. Any comprehensive analysis of why wars occur and how they are fought must consider a variety of factors including strategy, human error, and dumb luck.
Editorial War on gambling Comprehensive measures needed to fight vice. Published: Oct 27, 2015 - 17:46 Updated: Oct 27, 2015 - 17:46. Pingames and Gambling The Post-war Era. During World War II no new pingames ('payout', 'free play', or 'novelty') were manufactured, the plants being devoted to 'war production'. Some pre-war games were 'converted' to 'new' games using the old parts and cabinets. 'This is a more inclusive approach to fighting illegal gambling, by enlisting the support of the public, now making the eradication of the problem everybody's business,' she said. Martinez-Johnson said the Commission expects to see a significant reduction in illegal gambling activities, especially with the added incentive of a reward. War on gambling: 5 Chinese nationals to be charged with working without work permits in Nakuru #DayBreak @SamGituku.
Gambling and War applies lessons learned from poker, blackjack, roulette, and other games of chance to the study of international conflict. Drawing on scholarly insights from a variety of fields, including probability, statistics, political science, psychology, and economics, the book offers thoughts on how we can better manage and prevent international conflict, the costliest game of all.
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Praise for Gambling and War
'Scholars and members of the public alike often refer to war as a gamble, but how and why this is the case and the resemblance between war and games of chance are rarely plumbed as interesting and carefully as they are by Justin Conrad. Whether you are preparing to play poker or to study a war, you can learn a lot from Gambling and War.' —Robert Jervis, author of How Statesmen Think: The Psychology of International Politics
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'In this innovative and exciting study, Justin Conrad explores the intersection of strategy and psychology in war through analogy with the game of poker. With careful scholarship and well-selected examples, Conrad shows that international politics is the most dangerous game humans play.'—Stephen Benedict Dyson, author of Otherworldly Politics: The International Relations of Star Trek, Game of Thrones, and Battlestar Galactica
'Justin Conrad has crafted an exceptional work that goes well beyond the familiar comparison of international conflict and games of chance and addresses a fundamental challenge for international relations scholars—bridging the gaps between the academy, the public, and policy makers. The result is an excellent introduction to conflict theory for students, interested observers, and practitioners. At a time when the global conflict environment seems increasingly chaotic and unpredictable, Gambling and War provides an excellent exposition of relevant international relations theories and makes a strong case for the value of information and credibility in navigating a risk-laden world.' —CDR Matthew 'Tut' Testerman, U.S. Naval Academy
On This Page
Introduction
Casino War is without a doubt the easiest card game to play in the casino. If you have ever played war as a child, or simply made a bet on who could draw the highest card, then war will seem instantly familiar. Following are the specific rules.
Rules
- The game is played with six decks. Cards are ranked as in poker, except aces are always high. The suit does not matter.
- After the players have made a wager each player and the dealer shall get one card.
- Each player's card shall be compared with the dealer's card. If the player's card is higher he wins even money. If the dealer's card is higher the player loses.
- In the event of a tie the player shall have two choices: (1) surrender and forfeit half the bet or (2) go to war (see rule 5)
- If the player elects to go to war he must raise his bet by an amount equal to his original wager. The dealer will do the same but this is just for show. The dealer will then burn three cards and give the player and dealer another card each. If the player's second card equals or beats the dealer then the player shall win even money on the raise only and the original wager shall push. If the dealer's second card is greater the player shall lose both bets.
- At some casinos, the Mirage and Casino Niagara to name just two, a tie after a tie will result in a bonus equal to the original wager. At the Casino Niagara they say the raise pays 3 to 1 but the initial bet loses, which is mathematically the same thing.
- A tie bet is also available, which pays 10 to 1 if the first two cards tie.
I'm often asked where the house edge lays in this game. Where the edge comes from is when there is a war you either win one unit or lose two. For example, if you originally bet $5 you have to double your bet, risking $10, to win only $5.
Analysis
Stingy Rules
The following table shows the possible outcomes in a six-deck game with no bonus for a tie after a tie, assuming the player always goes to war.
Six Decks — Stingy Rules
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 1 | 0.502735 | 0.502735 |
| Lose original bet | -1 | 0.463023 | -0.463023 |
| Lose after war | -2 | 0.034242 | -0.068484 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.028771 |
The element of risk under these rules is 2.70% and the standard deviation is 1.05.
Liberal Rules
The next table shows the possible outcomes in a six-deck game with a bonus equal to the Ante for a tie after a tie, assuming the player always goes to war.
Six Decks — Liberal Rules
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win with tie after tie | 2 | 0.005471 | 0.010942 |
| All other wins | 1 | 0.497265 | 0.497265 |
| Lose original bet | -1 | 0.463023 | -0.463023 |
| Lose after war | -2 | 0.034242 | -0.068484 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.023301 |
The standard deviation under these rules is 1.057637.
Super Liberal Rules
Internet casinos using Gamesys software feature a rule where the player gets a bonus of 3x the Ante bet if the player gets a tie after a tie. The following table shows this lowers the house edge to 1.24%.
Six Decks — Super Liberal Rules
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win with tie after tie | 4 | 0.005471 | 0.021884 |
| All other wins | 1 | 0.497265 | 0.497265 |
| Lose original bet | -1 | 0.463023 | -0.463023 |
| Lose after war | -2 | 0.034242 | -0.068484 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.012358 |
Some Interent casinos use unusual number of decks. Paradise fishing slot machine for sale by owner. The following table shows the house edge under the bonus rules, normal 'no bonus' rules, surrendering on ties, and the tie bet itself.
Casino War House Edge
| Decks | With Bonus | No Bonus | Surrender | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.06% | 2.42% | 2.94% | 35.29% |
| 2 | 2.24% | 2.70% | 3.40% | 25.24% |
| 3 | 2.29% | 2.79% | 3.55% | 21.94% |
| 4 | 2.31% | 2.84% | 3.62% | 20.29% |
| 5 | 2.32% | 2.86% | 3.67% | 19.31% |
| 6 | 2.33% | 2.88% | 3.70% | 18.65% |
| 7 | 2.34% | 2.89% | 3.72% | 18.18% |
| 8 | 2.34% | 2.90% | 3.73% | 17.83% |
Tie Analysis
The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return on the Tie bet, assuming it pays the usual 10 to 1.
Tie Bet Analysis
| Decks | Probability Win | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.058824 | -0.352941 |
| 2 | 0.067961 | -0.252427 |
| 4 | 0.072464 | -0.202899 |
| 5 | 0.073359 | -0.193050 |
| 6 | 0.073955 | -0.186495 |
| 8 | 0.074699 | -0.178313 |
| Infinity | 0.076923 | -0.153846 |
Internal Links
You might enjoy playing my Casino War game.
External Links
Poker daisy duke. German translation of this page.
War Gaming Blogs
Written by:Michael Shackleford